Excellent post - I just want to poke at the red state/blue state framework. Most "red" states have operated under single party rule for decades, with GOP supermajorities that are not accountable to their own voters. There is a great deal of polling - including by Fox New itself - showing red state majorities opposed to book bans & abortion bans, and favoring bans on assault weapons. Because of extreme gerrymandering and voter suppression, their elected leaders are essentially reappointed, not reelected. The Dems have shamefully abandoned these states, with over 50% of races occurring uncontested. "Red" state voters purged by illegal suppression schemes are removed from Dem mailing lists. Not mobilized to re-register. Just forgotten.
I think it's really important for coastal white liberals to understand that what's happening on a national scale today has been true on the state level since at least 2013, when SCOTUS first hobbled the VRA. Red state residents are not the enemy. Many are in fact front line warriors for democracy, laboring on behalf of all of us.
The only upside — and only just — is that those Senators and Representatives "primaried" out of current office are now freed of captive obligations to El Maximo, and can vote against trumpy policies that they once favored — under duress. After Sen. John Cornyn was kneecapped by trump in favor of fellow felon Ken Paxton in the TX senatorial primary, one would hope that Cornyn as well would join Bill Cassidy and Thomas Tillis in joining the We-done-here-fuck-trump bloc.
Don't hold out hope for Cornyn. Cassidy and Tillis both have policy areas they care about from careers before politics (Cassidy, obviously, vaccination and medical professionalism more generally; Tillis, the Republican version of neoliberal corporate friendly governance). Cornyn is purely a product of the Texas Republican party and almost certainly will have some kind of post-Senate sinecure that requires him to not make waves.
I'm optimistic. Trump's hold on the Republican Party is a charismatic one. The Trumpies follow Trump, not Trumpism. Since the assassination of Charlie Kirk, I have seen no St. Paul or Brigham Young in the wings of the Republican Party--somebody who can institutionalize this charisma.
However, I am long-term worried about the Nazification of the federal governmental apparatus: the work of Vought and Miller. Vought especially is playing a long-term institutional game, and it will be difficult to undo his wreckage, even if the Republicans go into retreat for awhile.
There's much truth in the analysis of the overall landscape here, but I feel like it may overstate the prominence of Thomas Massie specifically. You could interpret him as a leader of a nascent Trump-skeptical current in MAGA politics snuffed out by the big boss, but I think he's more accurately understood as the last redoubt of a Tea Party Paul Ryanism that Trump rendered defunct long ago.
I actually agree with this characterization (more Rand Paul than Ryan though). I think Massie as last unreconstructed Tea Party-er and Massie as Great White Hope for the Tucker / MTG Israel skeptics can coexist though, because they're clearly both true.
Ganz's point that that Trump has created a GOP which "doesn't respond to public opinion" speaks to why Massie cannot win a Republican primary. Pace a widely cited quote from Massie, there is not a majority of principled paleo-libertarian voters he can rely on in a Republican primary- too many are follow-the-leader for the "craziest son of a bitch," Trump. Meanwhile, a recent momentum for right-wing Israel skepticism is happening largely among young Republicans and independents, and thus doesn't sufficiently exist within the bounds of a party primary. Massie cannot form a winning coalition in these conditions out of the old and new currents of his base.
A very cogent post, and I totally agree with your assessment of Trump's longterm hold on the Republican Party! Appreciate your insights, as always!
I am curious though if you have thoughts on paleocon, Israel-skeptical isolationism and its viability in MAGA. Following this race, I've seen online declarations about the (undeniable) weakness of isolationism in the MAGA movement. Yet unlike you, I thought that Massie's performance was pretty respectable given his public position as an outright Trump opponent- pretty similar numbers to Cori Bush's loss against an AIPAC-supported candidate in 2024.
Very interesting to compare the race with Brandon Herrera in TX-23- he's similarly an opponent of all American military aid, although unlike Massie tied himself closely to Trump. Narrowly defeated the Trump-endorsed if admittedly scandal-ridden Tony Gonzales. Seems like a younger and Tejano-majority constituency was a better audience, which reflects current polling on the issue.
I still think the approval/disapproval is meaningless: I think his base would honestly say they disapprove of what Trump's doing but would also do whatever he says! I have yet to meet a Trump supporter who would vote for anyone other than a MAGA person (even if they think the Iran war is dumb, or costs are too high, or ICE, or Epstein). I'm basically in the same position for democrats: I hate all of them, but, because I guilt myself into voting, what real choice do I have?
Massie had an independent streak but is also clearly an anti-Semite and a bigot more generally, see e.g. his anti LGBTQ rights advertisement with a huge Jewish star displayed prominently, appearances on Tucker. Surely this has to factor into how we think about the movement he represents?
The ads from both campaigns were truly crazed and scary. Slinging vicious demagoguery seems to be 85% of conservative politics these days. When it comes to public discourse, it's like nothing else is even operative anymore.
You mentioned looking at history, but to me it is quite parallel to the sectarian developments of the US political system prior to the Civil War. There are two parallel electoral systems: Republican primaries and Democratic primaries. Each system is jockeying for control of the federal government apparatus. In such a system the national environment no longer matters as either group has reached a point where their primary goal is to delegitimize the existence of the other. It doesn't seem so different from free states and slave states, and probably says something about the US Constitution itself.
I've long thought that the real innovation of the Trump era has been his ability to lead the political coalition of the right for now over 10 years. No one in modern American politics has done this since FDR, and he shaped the country's course even fifty years after his death.
This always reminds me of Josh Marshall's prescience on this, back in 2016; Trump is a warlord who took over the failed state of the GOP.
Good point - John's book really demonstrates that the pre-Reagan right was a competing environment of libertarians and paleos and racists, and that he was able to pull that coalition together only after Nixon and Ford failed. Even then, he had to bring along the old WASP Republicans like the Bushes. Trump hasn't had to do any of that - he's bent them all to his will and did it over the course of a single election. The GOP was a failed state and he was the warlord who took it over.
Which is why the q is what kind of phenomenon Trump's naming of a successor will be, if his charisma can be socially routinized and transferred (I doubt it) or Vance/Rubio/whoever can build enough of a patronage system/propaganda machine to maintain basic party loyalty.
This was the low key takeaway I took from the Charlie Kirk death, there was lots of bad faith bloody shirt waving, but the insiders were shook because he was the one who was actually building that machine infrastructure (how successfully, YMMV)
It wasn't just that Kirk was successfully building the infrastructure, but he was the only hard right guy/person who had the charisma to truly succeed Trump as the leader of MAGA. He would have turned 35 in the middle of 2028.
Yes but I meant within the actual party infrastructure and strategy post-Trump with Trump as mad kingmaker. Young men, Latino men, and Black men are probably mostly lost already. So what to do if you can't be accountable to public opinion? Try to consolidate white non-college, anti-elite part of the base through message discipline and voter suppression, I guess.
I have not believed that Trump's power is diminishing. He is an accomplished Mafia Don who knows how to manipulate people and cheat systems. He has helped engineer structural changes that will be hard to overcome.
Dear Donald's approval rating within the Republican party is currently ~%81 in the RCP stats. He had to cover up pedophilia and get gas prices high to push it under 90%. If Donald is wrong, they don't want to be right.
Polling! The easy way to produce BS reporting, to spread a mostly irrelevant story. Dumb and lazy.
Meanwhile, the old cliche is that the only poll that matters are elections. Contrary to what November and since have suggested, the Don did really well last week.
But!
Republican voters, more so those likely to vote *in primaries* are hooked on Donny. He’s decades of RWNJ media delusions personified — and he’s delivering. Donny scratching the itch of Iran (since 1980) is one of the motivations for the war.
But!
As I said, they're hooked on Trump Dopamine Hits and now dedicated to choosing in primaries the most extreme candidates they can. Theoretically, that should keep the anti-Republican backlash we got in November and since going by and by, balanced, at least on the Congressional level by the national Democratic party trying their best to disappoint their voters before the election instead of after what their promise to address affordability which absolutely cannot do on any level that matters.
All of which is to say that Donny can be doing awfully in polls but great in primaries.
Excellent post - I just want to poke at the red state/blue state framework. Most "red" states have operated under single party rule for decades, with GOP supermajorities that are not accountable to their own voters. There is a great deal of polling - including by Fox New itself - showing red state majorities opposed to book bans & abortion bans, and favoring bans on assault weapons. Because of extreme gerrymandering and voter suppression, their elected leaders are essentially reappointed, not reelected. The Dems have shamefully abandoned these states, with over 50% of races occurring uncontested. "Red" state voters purged by illegal suppression schemes are removed from Dem mailing lists. Not mobilized to re-register. Just forgotten.
I think it's really important for coastal white liberals to understand that what's happening on a national scale today has been true on the state level since at least 2013, when SCOTUS first hobbled the VRA. Red state residents are not the enemy. Many are in fact front line warriors for democracy, laboring on behalf of all of us.
It's pretty to think so and I hope to god it's true.
Nothing pretty about data, brother.
The only upside — and only just — is that those Senators and Representatives "primaried" out of current office are now freed of captive obligations to El Maximo, and can vote against trumpy policies that they once favored — under duress. After Sen. John Cornyn was kneecapped by trump in favor of fellow felon Ken Paxton in the TX senatorial primary, one would hope that Cornyn as well would join Bill Cassidy and Thomas Tillis in joining the We-done-here-fuck-trump bloc.
One lives in hope.
Don't hold out hope for Cornyn. Cassidy and Tillis both have policy areas they care about from careers before politics (Cassidy, obviously, vaccination and medical professionalism more generally; Tillis, the Republican version of neoliberal corporate friendly governance). Cornyn is purely a product of the Texas Republican party and almost certainly will have some kind of post-Senate sinecure that requires him to not make waves.
It looks like this is happening !
I'm optimistic. Trump's hold on the Republican Party is a charismatic one. The Trumpies follow Trump, not Trumpism. Since the assassination of Charlie Kirk, I have seen no St. Paul or Brigham Young in the wings of the Republican Party--somebody who can institutionalize this charisma.
However, I am long-term worried about the Nazification of the federal governmental apparatus: the work of Vought and Miller. Vought especially is playing a long-term institutional game, and it will be difficult to undo his wreckage, even if the Republicans go into retreat for awhile.
One more reason for the Dems to go scorched earth on their arses once they win Office again. Which they will, imo.
There's much truth in the analysis of the overall landscape here, but I feel like it may overstate the prominence of Thomas Massie specifically. You could interpret him as a leader of a nascent Trump-skeptical current in MAGA politics snuffed out by the big boss, but I think he's more accurately understood as the last redoubt of a Tea Party Paul Ryanism that Trump rendered defunct long ago.
I actually agree with this characterization (more Rand Paul than Ryan though). I think Massie as last unreconstructed Tea Party-er and Massie as Great White Hope for the Tucker / MTG Israel skeptics can coexist though, because they're clearly both true.
Ganz's point that that Trump has created a GOP which "doesn't respond to public opinion" speaks to why Massie cannot win a Republican primary. Pace a widely cited quote from Massie, there is not a majority of principled paleo-libertarian voters he can rely on in a Republican primary- too many are follow-the-leader for the "craziest son of a bitch," Trump. Meanwhile, a recent momentum for right-wing Israel skepticism is happening largely among young Republicans and independents, and thus doesn't sufficiently exist within the bounds of a party primary. Massie cannot form a winning coalition in these conditions out of the old and new currents of his base.
A very cogent post, and I totally agree with your assessment of Trump's longterm hold on the Republican Party! Appreciate your insights, as always!
I am curious though if you have thoughts on paleocon, Israel-skeptical isolationism and its viability in MAGA. Following this race, I've seen online declarations about the (undeniable) weakness of isolationism in the MAGA movement. Yet unlike you, I thought that Massie's performance was pretty respectable given his public position as an outright Trump opponent- pretty similar numbers to Cori Bush's loss against an AIPAC-supported candidate in 2024.
Very interesting to compare the race with Brandon Herrera in TX-23- he's similarly an opponent of all American military aid, although unlike Massie tied himself closely to Trump. Narrowly defeated the Trump-endorsed if admittedly scandal-ridden Tony Gonzales. Seems like a younger and Tejano-majority constituency was a better audience, which reflects current polling on the issue.
Yeah, that all sounds right to me. But I do think 10 points isn't super close!
Definitely not close haha! Meant more comparatively, given Bill Cassidy was trounced in a Liz Cheney style blowout
yeah, fair
I still think the approval/disapproval is meaningless: I think his base would honestly say they disapprove of what Trump's doing but would also do whatever he says! I have yet to meet a Trump supporter who would vote for anyone other than a MAGA person (even if they think the Iran war is dumb, or costs are too high, or ICE, or Epstein). I'm basically in the same position for democrats: I hate all of them, but, because I guilt myself into voting, what real choice do I have?
Massie had an independent streak but is also clearly an anti-Semite and a bigot more generally, see e.g. his anti LGBTQ rights advertisement with a huge Jewish star displayed prominently, appearances on Tucker. Surely this has to factor into how we think about the movement he represents?
The ads from both campaigns were truly crazed and scary. Slinging vicious demagoguery seems to be 85% of conservative politics these days. When it comes to public discourse, it's like nothing else is even operative anymore.
You mentioned looking at history, but to me it is quite parallel to the sectarian developments of the US political system prior to the Civil War. There are two parallel electoral systems: Republican primaries and Democratic primaries. Each system is jockeying for control of the federal government apparatus. In such a system the national environment no longer matters as either group has reached a point where their primary goal is to delegitimize the existence of the other. It doesn't seem so different from free states and slave states, and probably says something about the US Constitution itself.
I've long thought that the real innovation of the Trump era has been his ability to lead the political coalition of the right for now over 10 years. No one in modern American politics has done this since FDR, and he shaped the country's course even fifty years after his death.
This always reminds me of Josh Marshall's prescience on this, back in 2016; Trump is a warlord who took over the failed state of the GOP.
Great point. However, what about Reagan's coalition of the right?
Good point - John's book really demonstrates that the pre-Reagan right was a competing environment of libertarians and paleos and racists, and that he was able to pull that coalition together only after Nixon and Ford failed. Even then, he had to bring along the old WASP Republicans like the Bushes. Trump hasn't had to do any of that - he's bent them all to his will and did it over the course of a single election. The GOP was a failed state and he was the warlord who took it over.
Which is why the q is what kind of phenomenon Trump's naming of a successor will be, if his charisma can be socially routinized and transferred (I doubt it) or Vance/Rubio/whoever can build enough of a patronage system/propaganda machine to maintain basic party loyalty.
This was the low key takeaway I took from the Charlie Kirk death, there was lots of bad faith bloody shirt waving, but the insiders were shook because he was the one who was actually building that machine infrastructure (how successfully, YMMV)
It wasn't just that Kirk was successfully building the infrastructure, but he was the only hard right guy/person who had the charisma to truly succeed Trump as the leader of MAGA. He would have turned 35 in the middle of 2028.
Or if that will even matter if low-propensity, low-info voters return to pre-Trump voting patterns.
Yes but I meant within the actual party infrastructure and strategy post-Trump with Trump as mad kingmaker. Young men, Latino men, and Black men are probably mostly lost already. So what to do if you can't be accountable to public opinion? Try to consolidate white non-college, anti-elite part of the base through message discipline and voter suppression, I guess.
I have not believed that Trump's power is diminishing. He is an accomplished Mafia Don who knows how to manipulate people and cheat systems. He has helped engineer structural changes that will be hard to overcome.
On the other hand: Trump's influence and a ton of money only yielded 55% of the vote.
Dear Donald's approval rating within the Republican party is currently ~%81 in the RCP stats. He had to cover up pedophilia and get gas prices high to push it under 90%. If Donald is wrong, they don't want to be right.
Polling! The easy way to produce BS reporting, to spread a mostly irrelevant story. Dumb and lazy.
Meanwhile, the old cliche is that the only poll that matters are elections. Contrary to what November and since have suggested, the Don did really well last week.
But!
Republican voters, more so those likely to vote *in primaries* are hooked on Donny. He’s decades of RWNJ media delusions personified — and he’s delivering. Donny scratching the itch of Iran (since 1980) is one of the motivations for the war.
But!
As I said, they're hooked on Trump Dopamine Hits and now dedicated to choosing in primaries the most extreme candidates they can. Theoretically, that should keep the anti-Republican backlash we got in November and since going by and by, balanced, at least on the Congressional level by the national Democratic party trying their best to disappoint their voters before the election instead of after what their promise to address affordability which absolutely cannot do on any level that matters.
All of which is to say that Donny can be doing awfully in polls but great in primaries.