I think Trump's strategy could be called Hyperrealpolitik.
Realpolitik jettisoned the importance of moral, ideological or ethical considerations. Now Trump has gone the additional step of jettisoning the importance of practical and strategic considerations.
The goal is now to curate a powerful combination of images, narratives and symbols.
Apart from how things play on TV, social media and the stock-market there is no "goal". Honestly, thank god he still cares about the stock market because it's the only non-partisan/objective thing left he pays attention to. I find it particularly telling that when the COVID-19 pandemic was spreading across the world he downplayed it and tried to ignore it until the stock market tanked. Then he took it super-seriously. Then the stock market recovered and he started to downplay it again. I think Iran will focus it's military on crippling the global energy market as best they can. Because if stonks go down, Trump will declare victory and end the war, regardless of what is happening on the ground.
if youre familiar with james c scott's seeing like a state then youll get that we might also call the governing philosophy of trump ii *authoritarian high postmodernism*
Numb resignation--exactly. Billions blown up and we don’t have health care. Non- working toilets on the aircraft carrier. Basic material dignity blown off for grandiose fireworks that by the way murder hundreds of innocent girls at school and gym. The lack of opposition and the crazy glue of the political system lead to numbness.
If there ever was a case to be made that trump is a mere tool for other devious actors, this FUBAR war against Iran seals it. Netanyahu has been after trump since his second inauguration to "take out" The Islamic Republic, and last June's 12-day sortie was the kickoff. trump's interlocutors and "advisors" use the man, knowing full well that chaos results from erratic decision-making, and that HE alone bears the blowback. Where there is rank confusion at the highest level, schemers, opportunists, self-interested and self-dealing people operate with impunity, as we have witnessed the past 13 months. Spivs, chancers, and wide-boys daily populate both Mar-a-Lago and the Oval Office, preceded by courtiers greasing the palms of trump or his gatekeepers to gain access.
In all my years living in this country, NEVER have I seen such unprecedented scale of sheer, unmitigated incompetence operating at the presidential level, because NEVER has an administration cast itself in such dictatorial terms where competency in governance gives way to fawning, uncritical loyalty and unbridled corruption, birthing a regime stocked so full with stumble-bum ineptitude that all but guaranteed the "chaos-monkey" theory of governing, as so well put by the economist and writer Brad DeLong.
Yet, here we are, with no exit other than the mid-term elections, which already are targeted for disruption by the regime. As Comrade Lenin once asked, "What Is To Be Done?"
Venezuela was the worst thing that could've happened to this gang (and the world) in the way it weirdly mirrors some of the dynamics that followed the unanticipated successes of the Polish and French campaigns. It's pretty clear now the generals were warding off a lot of worst case scenarios in his (already more aggressive than generally noted) first term but Venezuela seemingly proved both to him and his grievance oriented staff that those eggheads' warnings were nothing but hand-wringing, that he really should just follow his gut and blow stuff up, after all, it worked stupendously! They became intoxicated by the emotional rush of easy victory and are now entirely over their skis. Iran is so conventionally outmatched I have genuinely no idea how this ends but the press conference today is the clearest indication yet that they don't either.
The only anti-war political forces that are moving right now are the feckless "but we weren't asked" but still favorable to an Iran war types like Schumer or the same group of dilettantes that form orgs like PSL.
Whenever Trump's doing something, my observation is always — "This won't politically hurt him, MAGA, or the Republican electoral map, unless X escalation happens". This sounds like the frog boiling scenario and the baseline keeps going downhill, but nevertheless, I think the unforgivable X in this situation is boots on the ground.
With American pilots dying, who cares, Trump has already called them all losers anyway. Boots on the ground, on the other hand, is the stress testing of the imperial project — whether the US finally accepts that the Emperor doesn't owe you an explanation when sending you to die.
I had a dream about teetering over an abyss on Saturday night: somebody told me that I had to climb over some rocks to get to a friend's house. The way had been lost years before but we were going to try to find it. I gamely climbed up onto the rocks and looked down. The ground was way, way down there, like when you look out of an airplane window shortly after take-off. I said I wasn't going to keep going and I turned around. My friend kept going though. I thought he might fall and die.
We should hold on to our conviction that this mad fascist fool should NOT be in power - these criminal acts can help clarify that for millions who have been sleepwalking through the past year/years.
I can’t parse if the cozying up to the GOP hawk establishment here was a smart move for Trump or not from a realpolitik perspective given his circumstances. It seems a bit of a desperation play to me, but it is stealing the oxygen from the various dumpster fires. I guess it largely depends on how things play out, and meanwhile, I agree there appears to be a frightening lack of thought or strategy here. But also, that may be a distorted impression because of Trump’s poor public communication. I’d imagine Israel isn’t going to move on this without a lot of preparation and clear objectives. Despite the horrible actions of the Isaeli govt in Gaza and elsewhere, they are not incompetent bumpkins.
I think Trump has told all his top people -- Hegseth, Bondi, Rubio, Lutnick, Miller -- that they do not have to fear facing justice after his presidency is over because he's promised to preemptively pardon them all.
“There is no effort at all here to mobilize the American population or win their consent; No concern with public apathy or opposition to war after years of disastrous efforts.”
Yup - as a fellow poker player, it’s pretty obvious these guys aren’t planning on a transition of power
If I were them, I’d give the feckless Dems the 2026 midterms and focus on 2028 and ensuring executive primacy
I think Trump's strategy could be called Hyperrealpolitik.
Realpolitik jettisoned the importance of moral, ideological or ethical considerations. Now Trump has gone the additional step of jettisoning the importance of practical and strategic considerations.
The goal is now to curate a powerful combination of images, narratives and symbols.
Apart from how things play on TV, social media and the stock-market there is no "goal". Honestly, thank god he still cares about the stock market because it's the only non-partisan/objective thing left he pays attention to. I find it particularly telling that when the COVID-19 pandemic was spreading across the world he downplayed it and tried to ignore it until the stock market tanked. Then he took it super-seriously. Then the stock market recovered and he started to downplay it again. I think Iran will focus it's military on crippling the global energy market as best they can. Because if stonks go down, Trump will declare victory and end the war, regardless of what is happening on the ground.
if youre familiar with james c scott's seeing like a state then youll get that we might also call the governing philosophy of trump ii *authoritarian high postmodernism*
Ben Chambers, I'd like to learn more about the concept of "authoritarian high postmodernism."
I think the mix of baudrillard’s hyperreality and real politick is very clever
This the Bush-era neocon "Real men want to go to Tehran" writ large...The Blob lives!
Numb resignation--exactly. Billions blown up and we don’t have health care. Non- working toilets on the aircraft carrier. Basic material dignity blown off for grandiose fireworks that by the way murder hundreds of innocent girls at school and gym. The lack of opposition and the crazy glue of the political system lead to numbness.
If there ever was a case to be made that trump is a mere tool for other devious actors, this FUBAR war against Iran seals it. Netanyahu has been after trump since his second inauguration to "take out" The Islamic Republic, and last June's 12-day sortie was the kickoff. trump's interlocutors and "advisors" use the man, knowing full well that chaos results from erratic decision-making, and that HE alone bears the blowback. Where there is rank confusion at the highest level, schemers, opportunists, self-interested and self-dealing people operate with impunity, as we have witnessed the past 13 months. Spivs, chancers, and wide-boys daily populate both Mar-a-Lago and the Oval Office, preceded by courtiers greasing the palms of trump or his gatekeepers to gain access.
In all my years living in this country, NEVER have I seen such unprecedented scale of sheer, unmitigated incompetence operating at the presidential level, because NEVER has an administration cast itself in such dictatorial terms where competency in governance gives way to fawning, uncritical loyalty and unbridled corruption, birthing a regime stocked so full with stumble-bum ineptitude that all but guaranteed the "chaos-monkey" theory of governing, as so well put by the economist and writer Brad DeLong.
Yet, here we are, with no exit other than the mid-term elections, which already are targeted for disruption by the regime. As Comrade Lenin once asked, "What Is To Be Done?"
Indeed.
Per Cory Doctorow, time for Congress to create a "Nuremberg Caucus."
Venezuela was the worst thing that could've happened to this gang (and the world) in the way it weirdly mirrors some of the dynamics that followed the unanticipated successes of the Polish and French campaigns. It's pretty clear now the generals were warding off a lot of worst case scenarios in his (already more aggressive than generally noted) first term but Venezuela seemingly proved both to him and his grievance oriented staff that those eggheads' warnings were nothing but hand-wringing, that he really should just follow his gut and blow stuff up, after all, it worked stupendously! They became intoxicated by the emotional rush of easy victory and are now entirely over their skis. Iran is so conventionally outmatched I have genuinely no idea how this ends but the press conference today is the clearest indication yet that they don't either.
The only anti-war political forces that are moving right now are the feckless "but we weren't asked" but still favorable to an Iran war types like Schumer or the same group of dilettantes that form orgs like PSL.
Numb resignation indeed
"Iran... Iraq... what the hell is the difference? Relax, guy!"
Whenever Trump's doing something, my observation is always — "This won't politically hurt him, MAGA, or the Republican electoral map, unless X escalation happens". This sounds like the frog boiling scenario and the baseline keeps going downhill, but nevertheless, I think the unforgivable X in this situation is boots on the ground.
With American pilots dying, who cares, Trump has already called them all losers anyway. Boots on the ground, on the other hand, is the stress testing of the imperial project — whether the US finally accepts that the Emperor doesn't owe you an explanation when sending you to die.
I had a dream about teetering over an abyss on Saturday night: somebody told me that I had to climb over some rocks to get to a friend's house. The way had been lost years before but we were going to try to find it. I gamely climbed up onto the rocks and looked down. The ground was way, way down there, like when you look out of an airplane window shortly after take-off. I said I wasn't going to keep going and I turned around. My friend kept going though. I thought he might fall and die.
We should hold on to our conviction that this mad fascist fool should NOT be in power - these criminal acts can help clarify that for millions who have been sleepwalking through the past year/years.
I can’t parse if the cozying up to the GOP hawk establishment here was a smart move for Trump or not from a realpolitik perspective given his circumstances. It seems a bit of a desperation play to me, but it is stealing the oxygen from the various dumpster fires. I guess it largely depends on how things play out, and meanwhile, I agree there appears to be a frightening lack of thought or strategy here. But also, that may be a distorted impression because of Trump’s poor public communication. I’d imagine Israel isn’t going to move on this without a lot of preparation and clear objectives. Despite the horrible actions of the Isaeli govt in Gaza and elsewhere, they are not incompetent bumpkins.
I think Trump has told all his top people -- Hegseth, Bondi, Rubio, Lutnick, Miller -- that they do not have to fear facing justice after his presidency is over because he's promised to preemptively pardon them all.
Gonna be a long 3 more years.
“There is no effort at all here to mobilize the American population or win their consent; No concern with public apathy or opposition to war after years of disastrous efforts.”
Yup - as a fellow poker player, it’s pretty obvious these guys aren’t planning on a transition of power
If I were them, I’d give the feckless Dems the 2026 midterms and focus on 2028 and ensuring executive primacy