With respect to the Matteotti comparison - the murder of Melissa Hortman was alarming to me! I do think it matters that she was a member of the Minnesota state legislature and not the national one, but it's a bad symptom of civic decay and it's alarming that almost everyone seems to have forgotten about it
That tortured attempt to conflate Trump and FDR offers really compelling evidence that people who lose their faith will sometimes convince themselves they’ve gotten it back by adopting bad faith as their personal religion.
Given Trump’s presidentialism, maybe a better historical analogy is Napoleon III & his self-coup? Though Bonapartist legacy is obviously a much greater rallying cry than whatever Trumpism is
I'll acknowledge that my own response to people who invoke the Declaration and the Founding and all that is to cringe a little bit—but then again, if that is my reaction, haven't I given up on the legibility of this country as much as those who decide that nothing matters except power?
Another point about the Reichstag Fire Decree. It also allowed the government to use the SA (Brownshirts) as an auxiliary police force. Since the SA had some two million members by the time Hitler became Chancellor in January 1933, this move vastly facilitated the Decree's enforcement. It's worth noting that the very first concentration camp (Dachau) was actually established by the SA shortly after passage of the Enabling Act in March, 1933. Imagining ICE playing a similar role isn't exactly toying with a false analogy. At least Steve Bannon doesn't seem to think so.
A closer approximation to ICE might be the Black and Tans in post-WW1 Ireland. An outfit recruited and organized by the government from the start rather than a paramilitary private army taken into government service.
I'm sad to see Moyn doggedly holding on to his 'tyrannophobia' framing as I've enjoyed his appearances on Know Your Enemy (which have not been about tyranny). I'm also sad to see Goldsmith sort of allying himself to it , or is the FDR comparison simply an academic exercise to him?
OK, G&M do frame their op-ed as an illustration of the *limits* of power. I'm not saying they are being nefarious. I admit that comparing Trump to FDR just gets my back up, and knowing that Moyn soft-pedalled Trump's fascist tendencies as a liberal delusion, doesn't help.
It would have been interesting to see them address the fascism vs tyrannophobia debate explicitly in the op-ed.
In using your excellent Polybius recently, it said the closest analogies to the current state of authoritarian consolidation in the U.S. were South Korea and Taiwan during their democratic transitions, and Portugal during the “Carnation Revolution.” Each of these resulted in a democratic return. Curious as to whether you have more to say about these historical cases.
Another thoughtful piece on the state of the USA. Unlike some of your other essays, this one seems to offer a glimmer of, dare I say it, hope. I saw recently on here somewhere, someone commented that the Inited States is essentially an ungovernable nation. I took this to mean that any effort to centralize power will provoke an opposite response. While this is not always a good thing, in the current circumstances, the attempt to impose authoritarian centralization is going to encounter significant, perhaps debilitating, resistance. FDR wa able to overcome a lot, though not all, of the resistance to what is now recognized as a constitutional paradigm shift because he had such a broad coalition of forces (hegemony). That trump is unable to draw on such a hegemonic position means that he will constantly be seeking to up the ante but also in the US context that counter-measures from states and local authorities, the courts, and in the streets will provide ongoing and escalating resistance. Can the trumpists totally rely on the military and other security forces to shut down opposition in this kind of situation? They are certainly trying but the prognosis doesn’t look good for them. Thing will probably get worse before they get better but I think that trump and trumpism have a limited lifespan and that US institutions, while damaged, have more durability.
I hope you’re right. I read and watch too many people whose hair is on fire. Whatever comes, it will be both less and more than we are expecting. We can’t see it yet, so I understand the desire for historical analogies. It gives us an illusory sense of control.
George Kennan to Anders Stephanson, "Correspondence," NRL Dec 29, 2025
"Concerning the designation ‘totalitarianism’: I have long considered that the most significant distinction between totalitarianism (a term that I have used primarily only with respect to Hitler’s regime in Germany and Stalin’s in Russia) was that under totalitarianism people were punished and killed on a massive scale not for any offense they had committed but for irrelevant and despicable reasons: for the offenses they were thought capable or desirous of committing (but hadn’t), for their membership in categories of people it was thought desirable to destroy en masse, etc.—whereas under normal authoritarian regimes people were normally persecuted only for violating established norms limiting the extent to which they might go in opposing the regime."
Removing or imprisoning people preemptively for things they might do, as in ICE's brief, would seem to be a lightly sketched-in version of Kennan's 'totalitarianism.'
Thanks to an earlier JG recommendation, I similarly consulted Sebastian Haffner’s Defying Hitler in attempts to access the validity of the historical parallels. Great and quick read, notable for being a personal account describing what it was like to live through the events as an ordinary dissenter. I agree with JGs conclusions about the comparison of Nazi Germany today. While there are many frightening parallels, the Nazi’s first year in power and rein of terror was orders of magnitude worse than this. The ICE raids are horrendous and awful and cynical and punitive and unconstitutional, but they have some basis in legal action. They are not for example systematically rounding up opposition figures or taking control over all sectors of society and instituting loyalty tests and forced indoctrination retreats. At least not yet, thank God.
I’m wondering more and more if the fascism is really more about papering over the kleptocracy. Like, the race baiting, domination and so forth may be more about keeping the MAGA base content through an autocratic transition at least until it is secured firmly. It is apparent to me these a-holes don’t give AF about American power as they are selling it out.
I like the King George/Revolutionary War comparisons because I think it taps into American patriotism in a way the American Left very rarely does anymore. Ceding the Revolutionary War and the Founding to the Right has been a mistake, allows the Right to define the Nation on their terms, and often obscuring or denying aspects of the American Revolution and Founding that were absolutely opposed to their ideology (Secularism, Individualism, consent of the governed vs Christian Nationalism, Collectivism (blood and nation above all), and rule from above). This gives legitimacy to those ideas and makes the Left and its values seem much more radical and alien than they actually are.
What we, who are living through this present, are primarily interested in (pace, historians) is *trajectory" -- where the dynamic is taking us and what course corrections might be feasible.
It is, mathematically speaking, an exercise in curve-fitting -- finding a known curve that can approximate and extend a curve for which the equation has not yet been established. Certain aspects of "our" curve strongly (or weakly) resemble known curves from the past, but our curve is subject to the jaggedness of "events" -- incidents that alter direction and slope.
Some of these events -- e.g., the Minneapolis killings -- are fairly predictable. Others -- e.g., will Trump live out this term? -- are anyone's guess. If we're trying to curve-fit, however, we will focus on *dynamics* rather than events, and on the behavioral tendencies of collectives. Viewed through such a lens, the curve, jagged as it may be, looks quite ominous: I have termed it the "dictator's doom loop" and written about it here: https://whowhatwhy.org/politics/us-politics/the-dictators-doom-loop-revisited-trump-wont-go-gentle/.
It may not be inexorable, but there is a strong pull, akin to that of a black hole, that gathers force with time. It does not bode well.
With respect to the Matteotti comparison - the murder of Melissa Hortman was alarming to me! I do think it matters that she was a member of the Minnesota state legislature and not the national one, but it's a bad symptom of civic decay and it's alarming that almost everyone seems to have forgotten about it
That tortured attempt to conflate Trump and FDR offers really compelling evidence that people who lose their faith will sometimes convince themselves they’ve gotten it back by adopting bad faith as their personal religion.
Given Trump’s presidentialism, maybe a better historical analogy is Napoleon III & his self-coup? Though Bonapartist legacy is obviously a much greater rallying cry than whatever Trumpism is
Moyn has long struck me as a bad combination of pretentious and pedestrian.
"they probably live around Boston" - Hi!
I'll acknowledge that my own response to people who invoke the Declaration and the Founding and all that is to cringe a little bit—but then again, if that is my reaction, haven't I given up on the legibility of this country as much as those who decide that nothing matters except power?
Another point about the Reichstag Fire Decree. It also allowed the government to use the SA (Brownshirts) as an auxiliary police force. Since the SA had some two million members by the time Hitler became Chancellor in January 1933, this move vastly facilitated the Decree's enforcement. It's worth noting that the very first concentration camp (Dachau) was actually established by the SA shortly after passage of the Enabling Act in March, 1933. Imagining ICE playing a similar role isn't exactly toying with a false analogy. At least Steve Bannon doesn't seem to think so.
No, not exactly. And Mussolini also deputized the Blackshirts in his resolution to the Matteotti affair.
A closer approximation to ICE might be the Black and Tans in post-WW1 Ireland. An outfit recruited and organized by the government from the start rather than a paramilitary private army taken into government service.
I'm sad to see Moyn doggedly holding on to his 'tyrannophobia' framing as I've enjoyed his appearances on Know Your Enemy (which have not been about tyranny). I'm also sad to see Goldsmith sort of allying himself to it , or is the FDR comparison simply an academic exercise to him?
This is separate from that.
OK, G&M do frame their op-ed as an illustration of the *limits* of power. I'm not saying they are being nefarious. I admit that comparing Trump to FDR just gets my back up, and knowing that Moyn soft-pedalled Trump's fascist tendencies as a liberal delusion, doesn't help.
It would have been interesting to see them address the fascism vs tyrannophobia debate explicitly in the op-ed.
In using your excellent Polybius recently, it said the closest analogies to the current state of authoritarian consolidation in the U.S. were South Korea and Taiwan during their democratic transitions, and Portugal during the “Carnation Revolution.” Each of these resulted in a democratic return. Curious as to whether you have more to say about these historical cases.
On that note, have you any thoughts on this new study of autocratic U-turns back to democracy? https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2024.2448742
I need to research it more!
Another thoughtful piece on the state of the USA. Unlike some of your other essays, this one seems to offer a glimmer of, dare I say it, hope. I saw recently on here somewhere, someone commented that the Inited States is essentially an ungovernable nation. I took this to mean that any effort to centralize power will provoke an opposite response. While this is not always a good thing, in the current circumstances, the attempt to impose authoritarian centralization is going to encounter significant, perhaps debilitating, resistance. FDR wa able to overcome a lot, though not all, of the resistance to what is now recognized as a constitutional paradigm shift because he had such a broad coalition of forces (hegemony). That trump is unable to draw on such a hegemonic position means that he will constantly be seeking to up the ante but also in the US context that counter-measures from states and local authorities, the courts, and in the streets will provide ongoing and escalating resistance. Can the trumpists totally rely on the military and other security forces to shut down opposition in this kind of situation? They are certainly trying but the prognosis doesn’t look good for them. Thing will probably get worse before they get better but I think that trump and trumpism have a limited lifespan and that US institutions, while damaged, have more durability.
I hope you’re right. I read and watch too many people whose hair is on fire. Whatever comes, it will be both less and more than we are expecting. We can’t see it yet, so I understand the desire for historical analogies. It gives us an illusory sense of control.
George Kennan to Anders Stephanson, "Correspondence," NRL Dec 29, 2025
"Concerning the designation ‘totalitarianism’: I have long considered that the most significant distinction between totalitarianism (a term that I have used primarily only with respect to Hitler’s regime in Germany and Stalin’s in Russia) was that under totalitarianism people were punished and killed on a massive scale not for any offense they had committed but for irrelevant and despicable reasons: for the offenses they were thought capable or desirous of committing (but hadn’t), for their membership in categories of people it was thought desirable to destroy en masse, etc.—whereas under normal authoritarian regimes people were normally persecuted only for violating established norms limiting the extent to which they might go in opposing the regime."
Removing or imprisoning people preemptively for things they might do, as in ICE's brief, would seem to be a lightly sketched-in version of Kennan's 'totalitarianism.'
It was illuminating, thank you.
Thanks to an earlier JG recommendation, I similarly consulted Sebastian Haffner’s Defying Hitler in attempts to access the validity of the historical parallels. Great and quick read, notable for being a personal account describing what it was like to live through the events as an ordinary dissenter. I agree with JGs conclusions about the comparison of Nazi Germany today. While there are many frightening parallels, the Nazi’s first year in power and rein of terror was orders of magnitude worse than this. The ICE raids are horrendous and awful and cynical and punitive and unconstitutional, but they have some basis in legal action. They are not for example systematically rounding up opposition figures or taking control over all sectors of society and instituting loyalty tests and forced indoctrination retreats. At least not yet, thank God.
I’m wondering more and more if the fascism is really more about papering over the kleptocracy. Like, the race baiting, domination and so forth may be more about keeping the MAGA base content through an autocratic transition at least until it is secured firmly. It is apparent to me these a-holes don’t give AF about American power as they are selling it out.
This piece brought to my mind ... "Miguel de Unamuno: 'You will win, because you possess more than enough brute force, but you will not convince', Unamuno's Last Lecture - 1936" - https://speakola.com/political/miguel-de-unamuno-last-lecture-1936
I like the King George/Revolutionary War comparisons because I think it taps into American patriotism in a way the American Left very rarely does anymore. Ceding the Revolutionary War and the Founding to the Right has been a mistake, allows the Right to define the Nation on their terms, and often obscuring or denying aspects of the American Revolution and Founding that were absolutely opposed to their ideology (Secularism, Individualism, consent of the governed vs Christian Nationalism, Collectivism (blood and nation above all), and rule from above). This gives legitimacy to those ideas and makes the Left and its values seem much more radical and alien than they actually are.
I enjoyed Jack Goldsmith’s book on how he was raised by the guy many accused of killing Jimmy Hoffa.
What we, who are living through this present, are primarily interested in (pace, historians) is *trajectory" -- where the dynamic is taking us and what course corrections might be feasible.
It is, mathematically speaking, an exercise in curve-fitting -- finding a known curve that can approximate and extend a curve for which the equation has not yet been established. Certain aspects of "our" curve strongly (or weakly) resemble known curves from the past, but our curve is subject to the jaggedness of "events" -- incidents that alter direction and slope.
Some of these events -- e.g., the Minneapolis killings -- are fairly predictable. Others -- e.g., will Trump live out this term? -- are anyone's guess. If we're trying to curve-fit, however, we will focus on *dynamics* rather than events, and on the behavioral tendencies of collectives. Viewed through such a lens, the curve, jagged as it may be, looks quite ominous: I have termed it the "dictator's doom loop" and written about it here: https://whowhatwhy.org/politics/us-politics/the-dictators-doom-loop-revisited-trump-wont-go-gentle/.
It may not be inexorable, but there is a strong pull, akin to that of a black hole, that gathers force with time. It does not bode well.